KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

39%

25%

23%

18%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

WN2NO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.05u · WN2 −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	64.7%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	69.4%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	85.3%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	61.1%	73.1%	5.1%	—	64.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	15.6%	75.1%	47.1%	—	58.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	75.5%	27.0%	51.5%	—	58.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	11.1%	17.9%	13.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	14.3%	9.0%	36.1%	—	42.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	7.2%	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	16.7%	11.3%	24.8%	—	29.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	2.6%	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	11.0%	6.3%	33.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	4.2%	12.7%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	8.2%	17.1%	21.0%	—	24.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	11.9%	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.9%	20.4%	13.9%	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	1.7%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.0%	5.9%	15.5%	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	1.4%	6.7%	0.0%	—	26.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.7%	6.1%	8.1%	—	15.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.2%	5.5%	8.2%	—	15.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.6%	7.5%	6.7%	13.7%	13.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	8.7%	11.5%	9.2%	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	3.7%	12.0%	17.3%	18.2%	9.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	2.5%	8.6%	12.4%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	8.9%	10.2%	10.2%	21.2%	13.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	13.6%	11.2%	31.1%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	8.3%	18.1%	27.6%	12.5%	16.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	13.2%	15.0%	33.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	71.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.8446
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1980
IFS HRES	39%	64.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1521
AIFS Single	25%	62.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0625
ICON	23%	61.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0520
WeatherNext 2	18%	62.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0324

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗