KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

39%

25%

23%

18%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

WN2NO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.05u · WN2 −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:13+00:00	75.2%	90.0%	85.0%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	75.2%	90.0%	85.0%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	75.2%	90.0%	85.0%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	47.1%	90.0%	85.0%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	47.1%	90.0%	84.9%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:08+00:00	47.1%	87.8%	84.9%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	47.1%	87.8%	84.9%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	47.1%	87.8%	84.9%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	47.1%	87.8%	72.1%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	47.1%	87.8%	72.1%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	47.1%	87.8%	72.1%	54.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	32.1%	87.8%	72.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	32.1%	87.8%	72.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	32.1%	87.8%	72.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	32.1%	87.8%	72.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	32.1%	87.8%	72.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	32.1%	87.8%	61.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	32.1%	87.8%	61.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	32.1%	87.8%	61.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	29.0%	87.8%	61.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	29.0%	87.8%	61.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	29.0%	87.8%	61.1%	72.6%	73.2%
2026-10-14T03:00:04+00:00	30.7%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	33.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	30.7%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	33.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	30.7%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	33.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	30.7%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	33.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	30.7%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	33.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	30.7%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	33.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	26.4%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	28.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	26.4%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	28.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	26.4%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	28.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	26.4%	89.4%	35.8%	62.2%	28.1%
2026-10-14T10:34:35+00:00	26.4%	89.4%	35.8%	43.6%	28.1%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	26.4%	90.4%	16.7%	43.6%	28.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	26.4%	90.4%	16.7%	43.6%	28.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	26.4%	90.4%	16.7%	43.6%	28.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	24.3%	90.4%	16.7%	43.6%	28.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	24.3%	90.1%	16.7%	43.6%	28.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	24.3%	91.4%	16.7%	43.6%	28.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	24.3%	91.4%	16.7%	43.6%	28.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	24.3%	91.4%	16.7%	43.6%	28.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	24.3%	91.4%	22.6%	43.6%	28.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	24.3%	91.4%	22.6%	43.6%	28.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	24.3%	91.4%	22.6%	43.6%	28.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00	19.8%	91.4%	22.6%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	19.8%	91.4%	22.6%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	19.8%	91.4%	22.6%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	19.8%	91.4%	22.6%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	19.8%	91.4%	22.6%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	19.8%	91.9%	18.0%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	19.8%	91.9%	18.0%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	19.8%	91.9%	18.0%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	25.0%	91.9%	18.0%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	25.0%	91.9%	18.0%	39.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	25.0%	91.9%	18.0%	39.0%	22.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	71.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.8446
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1980
IFS HRES	39%	64.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1521
AIFS Single	25%	62.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0625
ICON	23%	61.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0520
WeatherNext 2	18%	62.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0324

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗