KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

69%

63%

42%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.50u

HRESNO 43.5¢Risks 43.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.50u · HRES −43.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	52.5%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	57.1%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	76.2%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	47.2%	60.4%	2.3%	—	50.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	8.4%	62.3%	33.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	62.0%	16.0%	36.5%	—	43.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	5.3%	9.3%	6.4%	—	26.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	6.9%	3.9%	21.9%	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.0%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	8.0%	5.0%	13.1%	—	16.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.9%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.6%	2.3%	18.4%	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.4%	5.3%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.0%	7.5%	9.8%	—	12.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.7%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.5%	9.0%	5.5%	—	12.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.4%	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.2%	1.7%	5.9%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.3%	1.9%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	1.7%	2.4%	—	5.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.4%	1.4%	2.3%	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	2.0%	1.7%	4.3%	4.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.2%	3.2%	2.4%	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.7%	3.2%	5.3%	5.7%	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	2.0%	3.2%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	2.3%	2.3%	6.3%	3.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.2%	2.4%	10.5%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.5%	4.4%	8.3%	2.6%	3.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.6%	3.1%	10.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	71.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.5055
WeatherNext 2	69%	70.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.4733
AIFS Single	63%	69.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.3931
National Blend	54%	68.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2873
IFS HRES	42%	66.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1756

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗