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KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
71%
WN2
69%
AIFS
63%
HRES
42%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.50u
VS
HRESNO 43.5¢Risks 43.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.50u · HRES −43.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:37+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T10:34:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-11T07:32:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.1% · 2026-10-11T10:34:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-11T10:34:17+00:00IFS HRES: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T07:32:37+00:00IFS HRES: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS HRES: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 41.9% · 2026-10-11T10:34:17+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:34:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:37+00:0062.7%71.1%68.8%41.9%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:0062.7%71.1%68.8%41.9%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:0062.7%71.1%68.8%41.9%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:0062.7%71.1%68.8%41.9%
2026-10-11T10:34:17+00:0062.7%71.1%68.8%41.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble71%71.4°F7.0°F2026-10-10 00:000.5055
WeatherNext 269%70.1°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.4733
AIFS Single63%69.3°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.3931
National Blend54%68.0°F5.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.2873
IFS HRES42%66.2°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.1756

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗