KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

42%

16%

12%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 25.8¢Risks 25.80u

AIFSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.20u · AIFS −74.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	34.1%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	37.8%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	58.1%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	27.5%	39.6%	0.6%	—	30.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.7%	40.6%	16.1%	—	24.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	39.4%	5.8%	17.9%	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.3%	2.7%	1.7%	—	11.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	8.0%	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.6%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.9%	1.1%	3.8%	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	0.4%	5.5%	—	5.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	1.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	1.5%	2.1%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	—	2.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%	—	2.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2852
IFS Ensemble	47%	70.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2247
IFS HRES	42%	69.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1731
National Blend	29%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0824
ICON	16%	63.5°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0253
WeatherNext 2	12%	65.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0151
AIFS Single	4%	61.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0018

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗