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KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
47%
HRES
42%
ICON
16%
WN2
12%
AIFS
4%
Consensus
22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 25.8¢Risks 25.80u
VS
AIFSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.20u · AIFS −74.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T04:01:57+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T04:01:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.4% · 2026-10-12T04:01:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.4% · 2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-10-12T04:01:57+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 42.5% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00ICON: 54.4% · 2026-10-12T04:01:57+00:00ICON: 54.4% · 2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00ICON: 54.4% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00ICON: 54.4% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00ICON: 54.4% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:0010-12 04:0110-12 09:1910-12 14:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T04:01:57+00:007.4%55.0%23.4%42.5%54.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:007.4%55.0%23.4%42.5%54.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:007.4%55.0%16.6%42.5%54.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:007.4%55.0%16.6%42.5%54.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:007.4%55.0%16.6%42.5%54.4%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:008.7%55.0%16.6%41.6%15.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:008.7%55.0%16.6%41.6%15.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:008.7%55.0%16.6%41.6%15.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:008.7%55.0%16.6%41.6%15.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:008.7%55.0%16.6%41.6%15.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:008.7%55.0%12.2%41.6%15.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:008.7%47.4%12.2%41.6%15.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:008.7%47.4%12.2%41.6%15.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:004.1%47.4%12.2%41.6%15.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:004.2%47.4%12.3%41.6%15.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.8°F2026-10-12 02:000.2852
IFS Ensemble47%70.2°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.2247
IFS HRES42%69.1°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.1731
National Blend29%68.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 06:000.0824
ICON16%63.5°F7.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.0253
WeatherNext 212%65.2°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0151
AIFS Single4%61.3°F5.3°F2026-10-12 06:000.0018

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗