KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 8.2¢Risks 4.10u

WN2NO 91.8¢Risks 45.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.90u · WN2 −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	14.9%	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	16.8%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	31.8%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	9.6%	16.6%	0.1%	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	16.5%	4.2%	—	7.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.1%	1.0%	4.6%	—	6.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	—	2.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	1.2%	—	1.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	16%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0253
IFS HRES	11%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0112
National Blend	3%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0011
NWS forecast	3%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0008
ICON	2%	63.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0006
AIFS Single	1%	63.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗