KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 8.2¢Risks 4.10u

WN2NO 91.8¢Risks 45.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.90u · WN2 −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:38+00:00	17.5%	32.9%	20.3%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	17.5%	32.9%	20.3%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	17.5%	32.9%	20.3%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	17.5%	32.9%	20.3%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:17+00:00	17.5%	32.9%	20.3%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:13+00:00	17.5%	25.0%	21.4%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	17.5%	25.0%	21.4%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	17.5%	25.0%	21.4%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	4.6%	25.0%	21.4%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	4.6%	25.0%	21.5%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:08+00:00	4.6%	23.9%	21.5%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	4.6%	23.9%	21.5%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	4.6%	23.9%	21.5%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	4.6%	23.9%	10.8%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	4.6%	23.9%	10.8%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	4.6%	23.9%	10.8%	9.5%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	1.9%	23.9%	10.8%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	1.9%	23.9%	10.8%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	1.9%	23.9%	10.8%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	1.9%	23.9%	10.8%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	1.9%	23.9%	10.8%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	1.9%	23.9%	6.2%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	1.9%	23.9%	6.2%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	1.9%	23.9%	6.2%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	1.5%	23.9%	6.2%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	1.5%	23.9%	6.2%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	1.5%	23.9%	6.2%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T04:01:57+00:00	1.5%	23.9%	6.2%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	1.5%	23.9%	6.2%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	1.5%	23.9%	3.8%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	1.5%	23.9%	3.8%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	1.5%	23.9%	3.8%	20.6%	38.4%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	1.7%	23.9%	3.8%	20.5%	5.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	1.7%	23.9%	3.8%	20.5%	5.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	1.7%	23.9%	3.8%	20.5%	5.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	1.7%	23.9%	3.8%	20.5%	5.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	1.7%	23.9%	3.8%	20.5%	5.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	1.7%	23.9%	2.0%	20.5%	5.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	1.7%	17.1%	2.0%	20.5%	5.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	1.7%	17.1%	2.0%	20.5%	5.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	0.6%	17.1%	2.0%	20.5%	5.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	0.6%	17.5%	2.1%	20.5%	5.9%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	0.6%	17.5%	2.1%	20.5%	5.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	0.6%	12.6%	2.1%	20.5%	5.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	0.6%	12.6%	0.4%	20.5%	5.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	0.6%	12.6%	0.4%	20.5%	5.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	0.6%	12.6%	0.4%	20.5%	5.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	0.6%	12.6%	0.4%	20.5%	5.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	1.1%	12.6%	0.4%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	1.1%	12.6%	0.4%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	1.1%	12.6%	0.4%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	1.1%	12.6%	0.4%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	1.1%	12.6%	0.7%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	1.1%	12.6%	0.7%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	1.1%	12.6%	0.7%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	1.1%	12.6%	0.7%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	0.8%	12.6%	0.7%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	0.8%	12.6%	0.7%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	0.8%	12.6%	0.7%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T04:16:23+00:00	0.8%	12.6%	0.7%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	0.8%	12.6%	0.4%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	0.8%	12.6%	0.4%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	0.8%	12.6%	0.4%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	0.8%	12.6%	0.4%	17.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	0.4%	12.6%	0.4%	5.9%	1.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	0.4%	12.6%	0.4%	5.9%	1.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	0.4%	12.6%	0.4%	5.9%	1.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	0.4%	12.6%	0.4%	5.9%	1.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.1%	5.9%	1.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.1%	6.2%	1.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.3%	6.2%	1.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.3%	6.2%	1.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	0.3%	6.2%	1.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	0.8%	15.9%	0.3%	6.2%	2.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	0.8%	15.9%	0.3%	6.2%	2.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	0.8%	15.9%	0.3%	6.2%	2.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	0.8%	15.9%	0.3%	6.2%	2.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	0.8%	15.9%	0.3%	11.0%	2.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	0.8%	15.9%	0.5%	10.6%	2.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	0.8%	15.9%	0.5%	10.6%	2.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	0.8%	15.9%	0.5%	10.6%	2.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	0.5%	10.6%	2.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	0.5%	10.6%	2.5%
2026-10-14T03:00:04+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	0.5%	10.6%	2.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	0.5%	10.6%	2.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	1.0%	15.9%	0.5%	10.6%	2.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	16%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0253
IFS HRES	11%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0112
National Blend	3%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0011
NWS forecast	3%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0008
ICON	2%	63.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0006
AIFS Single	1%	63.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	64.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗