KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

31%

28%

23%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.5¢Risks 20.45u

WN2NO 79.5¢Risks 79.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.55u · WN2 −79.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	8.5%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	68.2%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	63.8%	65.7%	0.0%	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	37.1%	70.9%	14.4%	—	50.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	46.2%	73.0%	13.4%	—	36.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	50.0%	35.2%	20.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	14.3%	58.3%	1.4%	—	27.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	0.1%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	7.7%	15.6%	2.4%	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	45.5%	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	5.5%	20.9%	7.9%	—	20.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	6.4%	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	11.6%	14.2%	6.2%	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	9.2%	11.0%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	11.3%	13.9%	5.2%	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	6.5%	17.6%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	10.4%	16.9%	2.6%	0.0%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	10.7%	26.7%	0.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.8%	26.0%	3.8%	22.4%	10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.3%	25.3%	1.7%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.1%	20.8%	1.0%	—	13.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.3%	21.9%	1.8%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.0%	21.0%	1.3%	15.7%	10.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.8%	20.1%	3.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.3%	22.2%	1.5%	22.2%	16.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.6%	10.5%	1.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.8%	9.6%	1.6%	34.6%	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	10.7%	3.4%	—	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
National Blend	36%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1325
ICON	34%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1136
IFS HRES	31%	67.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0986
IFS Ensemble	28%	66.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0795
AIFS Single	23%	66.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0520
WeatherNext 2	7%	64.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0052

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗