KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

93%

85%

84%

70%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.5¢Risks 82.45u

ICONNO 17.5¢Risks 17.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.55u · ICON −17.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	58.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	92.0%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	66.4%	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.7%	49.3%	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	82.0%	98.0%	34.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.4%	94.5%	40.6%	—	52.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.6%	63.5%	99.2%	1.9%	—	78.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	53.2%	95.7%	97.1%	—	88.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	57.5%	98.9%	74.2%	—	91.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.1%	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	14.1%	99.4%	96.2%	—	95.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	58.0%	99.5%	—	—	95.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	91.0%	99.2%	97.1%	—	91.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	70.8%	99.8%	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	86.4%	99.3%	92.8%	—	94.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	90.8%	99.7%	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	74.9%	99.2%	85.5%	0.0%	96.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	88.4%	99.8%	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	90.1%	99.5%	91.5%	—	99.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	68.5%	92.5%	0.0%	—	98.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	73.0%	93.2%	94.9%	0.0%	98.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	72.7%	93.4%	93.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	92.0%	87.6%	89.4%	84.9%	98.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	81.8%	90.8%	81.8%	—	96.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	92.1%	93.9%	87.4%	84.3%	96.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	92.9%	94.6%	90.2%	—	94.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	87.0%	93.2%	92.7%	87.8%	94.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	94.4%	97.3%	—	90.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	70.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	66.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	66.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	64.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗