KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

93%

85%

84%

70%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.5¢Risks 82.45u

ICONNO 17.5¢Risks 17.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.55u · ICON −17.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:35+00:00	87.1%	73.3%	88.1%	95.1%	77.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	87.1%	73.3%	88.1%	95.1%	77.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	87.1%	73.3%	90.8%	95.1%	77.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	87.1%	73.3%	90.8%	95.1%	77.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	87.1%	73.3%	90.8%	95.1%	77.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	90.8%	93.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	90.8%	93.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	90.8%	93.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	90.8%	93.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	95.1%	93.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	95.1%	93.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	72.0%	83.7%	95.1%	93.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	72.0%	83.7%	95.1%	93.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	85.2%	83.7%	95.1%	93.4%	69.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	85.2%	83.7%	95.1%	93.4%	69.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	70.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	66.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	66.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	64.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗