KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

69%

13%

12%

<1%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 45.4¢Risks 45.35u

AIFSNO 54.6¢Risks 54.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +54.65u · AIFS −54.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	82.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	47.4%	—	—	75.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	30.0%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	65.1%	93.5%	18.0%	—	23.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	85.2%	21.5%	—	31.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	40.9%	96.5%	0.4%	—	58.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	30.1%	86.9%	90.3%	—	73.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	33.0%	95.1%	50.8%	—	76.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.0%	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	4.1%	96.8%	86.9%	—	85.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	31.8%	96.9%	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	74.1%	95.7%	88.5%	—	75.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	43.4%	98.2%	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	64.3%	95.6%	76.8%	—	79.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	71.8%	97.9%	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	45.9%	94.8%	61.2%	0.0%	84.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	65.5%	98.2%	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	67.9%	96.2%	70.8%	—	93.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	72.4%	0.0%	—	89.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	39.6%	73.0%	77.6%	0.0%	90.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	38.1%	72.7%	72.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	68.0%	58.7%	62.3%	53.7%	88.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	47.4%	63.9%	47.4%	—	80.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	65.7%	70.5%	55.4%	50.0%	79.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	66.2%	71.2%	59.7%	—	71.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	51.4%	65.5%	64.2%	52.9%	68.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	67.5%	78.7%	—	57.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	90%	72.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	68.5°F	8.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	65.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	53.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	58.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	49.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 65°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗