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KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
90%
EPS
69%
ICON
13%
WN2
12%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 45.4¢Risks 45.35u
VS
AIFSNO 54.6¢Risks 54.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +54.65u · AIFS −54.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.2% · 2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.3% · 2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00IFS HRES: 90.2% · 2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00IFS HRES: 90.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS HRES: 90.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS HRES: 90.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:0010-13 08:0410-13 09:3410-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:000.5%69.2%12.3%90.2%13.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:000.5%69.2%12.3%90.2%13.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:000.5%69.2%12.3%90.2%13.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:000.5%69.2%12.3%90.2%13.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES90%72.7°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble69%68.5°F8.0°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend52%65.0°F8.8°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON13%53.5°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 212%58.3°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
AIFS Single<1%49.9°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 65°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗