KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

55%

37%

32%

26%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.9¢Risks 42.90u

AIFSNO 57.1¢Risks 57.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.10u · AIFS −57.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	61.8%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	23.6%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	11.4%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	37.6%	79.1%	5.2%	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	62.3%	6.4%	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	16.0%	85.4%	0.0%	—	28.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	9.3%	62.5%	69.2%	—	42.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	10.1%	79.3%	20.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	0.0%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	0.4%	83.3%	59.6%	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	8.5%	83.4%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	39.1%	78.4%	60.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	13.2%	87.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	27.1%	76.8%	40.4%	—	44.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	33.5%	84.8%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	12.8%	72.4%	22.7%	0.0%	49.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	25.3%	85.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	26.4%	75.3%	29.2%	—	65.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	6.7%	29.6%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	28.9%	34.1%	0.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	6.6%	27.3%	27.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	21.7%	15.1%	17.4%	12.4%	48.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	8.7%	17.4%	8.7%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	17.3%	21.0%	11.3%	8.9%	29.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	16.4%	20.1%	12.4%	—	20.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	7.8%	14.6%	13.8%	8.3%	16.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	14.4%	23.6%	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	8.3%	—	4.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	59%	69.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	69.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	66.7°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	66.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	65.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗