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KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
59%
HRES
55%
EPS
37%
ICON
32%
AIFS
26%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 42.9¢Risks 42.90u
VS
AIFSNO 57.1¢Risks 57.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.10u · AIFS −57.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 26.3% · 2026-10-17T04:42:28+00:00AIFS Single: 26.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00AIFS Single: 26.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 26.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-17T04:42:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T04:42:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS HRES: 46.8% · 2026-10-17T04:42:28+00:00IFS HRES: 46.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 46.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 46.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00IFS HRES: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00ICON: 54.1% · 2026-10-17T04:42:28+00:00ICON: 54.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00ICON: 54.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00ICON: 54.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00ICON: 32.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:0010-17 04:4210-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:42:28+00:0026.3%42.6%59.6%46.8%54.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:0026.3%42.6%63.7%46.8%54.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:0026.3%42.6%63.7%46.8%54.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:0026.3%42.6%63.7%46.8%54.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:0030.4%42.6%63.7%55.3%32.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:0030.4%42.6%63.7%55.3%32.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:0030.4%42.6%63.7%55.3%32.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0030.4%42.6%63.7%55.3%32.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0030.4%42.6%63.7%55.3%32.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:0030.4%37.0%59.4%55.3%32.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:0030.4%37.0%59.4%55.3%32.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:0030.4%37.0%59.4%55.3%32.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:0026.4%37.0%59.4%55.3%32.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:0026.4%37.2%59.4%55.3%32.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 259%69.3°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES55%69.1°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%69.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble37%66.7°F5.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend37%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON32%66.7°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single26%65.8°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗