KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

33%

20%

10%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 22.2¢Risks 22.25u

ICONNO 77.8¢Risks 77.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.75u · ICON −77.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	49.4%	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	14.8%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	6.2%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	25.2%	67.7%	2.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	47.8%	2.9%	—	5.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	8.4%	74.9%	0.0%	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	4.3%	46.8%	54.0%	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	4.5%	65.5%	10.8%	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.0%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.1%	70.1%	42.2%	—	39.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.4%	69.8%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	23.0%	62.7%	42.7%	—	24.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.6%	74.7%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	13.6%	59.6%	23.2%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	17.7%	70.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.9%	53.1%	10.3%	0.0%	29.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	11.6%	69.3%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	11.9%	55.5%	13.7%	—	44.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.9%	13.5%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.2%	12.7%	16.0%	0.0%	32.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.7%	11.4%	11.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	8.0%	4.9%	5.9%	3.7%	25.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	5.6%	2.2%	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.3%	7.0%	3.0%	2.2%	11.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	6.2%	3.2%	—	6.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	3.7%	3.5%	1.8%	4.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.4%	7.0%	—	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	68.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	67.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	65.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	63.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗