KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

33%

20%

10%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 22.2¢Risks 22.25u

ICONNO 77.8¢Risks 77.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.75u · ICON −77.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:41+00:00	13.6%	24.3%	25.7%	33.5%	7.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	13.6%	24.3%	30.7%	33.5%	7.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	13.6%	24.3%	30.7%	33.5%	7.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	13.6%	24.3%	30.7%	33.5%	7.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	13.6%	24.3%	30.7%	33.5%	7.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00	16.8%	24.3%	30.7%	66.1%	9.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	16.8%	24.3%	30.7%	66.1%	9.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	16.8%	24.3%	30.7%	66.1%	9.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	16.8%	24.3%	30.7%	66.1%	9.7%
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00	16.8%	30.9%	28.1%	66.1%	9.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	16.8%	30.9%	28.1%	66.1%	9.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	16.8%	30.9%	28.1%	66.1%	9.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	16.8%	30.9%	28.1%	66.1%	9.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	12.4%	31.4%	28.1%	66.1%	9.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:05+00:00	12.4%	31.4%	28.1%	66.1%	9.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	12.4%	32.6%	28.1%	66.1%	9.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	12.4%	32.6%	28.1%	66.1%	9.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	12.4%	32.6%	21.9%	66.1%	9.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	12.4%	32.6%	21.9%	66.1%	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	12.4%	32.6%	21.9%	66.1%	9.8%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	10.9%	32.6%	21.9%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	10.9%	32.6%	21.9%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	10.9%	32.6%	21.9%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	10.9%	32.6%	21.9%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	10.9%	32.6%	21.9%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	10.9%	32.6%	20.1%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	10.9%	32.6%	20.1%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	10.9%	32.6%	20.1%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	10.0%	32.6%	20.1%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	10.0%	32.6%	20.1%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	10.0%	32.6%	20.1%	42.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	10.0%	32.6%	20.1%	42.3%	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	68.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	67.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	65.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	63.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗