KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.3¢Risks 4.15u

ICONNO 91.7¢Risks 45.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.85u · ICON −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	31.3%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.2%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.5%	47.2%	0.6%	—	1.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	27.2%	0.7%	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	2.5%	53.8%	0.0%	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.0%	24.8%	30.9%	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.0%	40.9%	3.1%	—	12.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	44.8%	19.6%	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	43.7%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	7.6%	35.6%	19.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.1%	48.1%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.4%	31.3%	7.2%	—	8.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.7%	41.1%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	24.3%	2.1%	0.0%	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.3%	38.5%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.3%	24.7%	2.8%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	2.6%	0.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	2.2%	3.1%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.7%	1.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.5%	0.6%	0.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	1.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	0.4%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	68.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	67.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	65.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗