KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.3¢Risks 4.15u

ICONNO 91.7¢Risks 45.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.85u · ICON −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:26+00:00	0.0%	21.4%	1.0%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	0.0%	21.4%	1.0%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	0.0%	21.4%	1.0%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	0.0%	21.4%	1.0%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	0.0%	21.4%	1.0%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.0%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.0%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.0%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.3%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.3%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.3%	45.0%	2.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.3%	45.0%	40.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.3%	45.0%	40.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.3%	45.0%	40.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.3%	45.0%	40.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	0.0%	20.6%	1.3%	13.5%	40.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00	18.2%	16.6%	1.4%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	18.2%	16.6%	1.4%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	18.2%	16.6%	1.4%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	18.2%	16.6%	1.4%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	18.2%	16.6%	1.4%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	18.2%	16.7%	8.2%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	18.2%	16.7%	8.2%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	18.2%	16.7%	8.2%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	13.7%	16.7%	8.2%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	13.7%	16.7%	8.2%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	13.7%	16.7%	8.2%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	13.7%	16.7%	8.2%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	13.7%	16.7%	8.2%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	13.7%	16.7%	10.7%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	13.7%	16.7%	10.7%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	13.7%	16.7%	10.7%	43.4%	17.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00	3.4%	16.7%	10.7%	28.4%	6.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	3.4%	16.7%	10.7%	28.4%	6.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	3.4%	16.7%	10.7%	28.4%	6.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	3.4%	16.7%	10.7%	28.4%	6.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	3.4%	16.7%	10.3%	28.4%	6.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	3.4%	16.7%	10.3%	28.4%	6.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	3.4%	11.5%	10.3%	28.4%	6.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	3.4%	11.5%	10.3%	28.4%	6.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	8.6%	11.5%	10.3%	28.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	8.6%	11.5%	10.3%	28.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	10.3%	28.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	10.3%	28.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	15.3%	28.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	15.3%	28.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	15.3%	28.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	15.3%	28.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	15.3%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	15.3%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	15.3%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	15.3%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	8.6%	11.8%	16.5%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	8.5%	11.8%	16.5%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	8.5%	11.8%	16.5%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	5.3%	11.8%	16.5%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	5.3%	11.8%	16.5%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	5.3%	11.8%	16.5%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	5.3%	11.8%	16.5%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:59+00:00	5.3%	11.8%	16.5%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	5.3%	11.8%	20.4%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	5.3%	11.8%	20.4%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	5.3%	11.8%	20.4%	46.6%	8.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	6.1%	11.8%	20.4%	46.6%	0.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	6.1%	11.8%	20.4%	46.6%	0.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	6.1%	11.8%	20.4%	46.6%	0.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	6.1%	11.8%	20.4%	46.6%	0.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	6.1%	11.8%	20.4%	46.6%	0.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	6.1%	11.9%	9.4%	46.6%	0.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	6.1%	11.9%	9.4%	46.6%	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	6.1%	11.9%	9.4%	46.6%	0.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	5.6%	11.9%	9.4%	44.4%	0.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	5.5%	11.9%	9.4%	44.4%	0.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:00	5.5%	11.1%	9.4%	44.4%	0.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	5.5%	11.1%	9.4%	44.4%	0.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	5.5%	11.1%	9.4%	44.4%	0.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	5.5%	11.1%	21.8%	44.4%	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	5.5%	11.1%	21.8%	44.4%	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	5.5%	11.1%	21.8%	44.4%	0.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	5.8%	11.1%	21.8%	44.4%	17.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	5.8%	11.1%	21.8%	44.4%	17.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	5.8%	11.1%	21.8%	44.4%	17.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	5.8%	11.1%	21.8%	44.4%	17.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	5.8%	11.1%	21.8%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	5.8%	11.1%	13.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	5.8%	11.1%	13.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	5.8%	11.1%	13.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	4.2%	11.1%	13.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	4.2%	11.1%	13.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	4.2%	11.1%	13.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	4.2%	11.1%	13.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:00	4.2%	11.1%	13.5%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	4.2%	11.1%	16.0%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	4.2%	11.1%	16.0%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	4.2%	11.1%	16.0%	14.0%	17.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	4.6%	11.1%	16.0%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	4.6%	11.1%	16.0%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	4.6%	11.1%	16.0%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	4.6%	11.1%	16.0%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	4.6%	11.1%	16.0%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	4.6%	10.5%	10.6%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	4.6%	10.5%	10.6%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	4.6%	10.5%	10.6%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	3.6%	10.5%	10.6%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	3.6%	10.8%	10.6%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	10.6%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	10.6%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	5.8%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	5.8%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	5.8%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	5.8%	16.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	4.6%	10.4%	5.8%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	4.6%	10.4%	5.8%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	4.6%	10.4%	5.8%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	4.6%	10.4%	5.8%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	4.6%	10.4%	6.1%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	4.6%	10.4%	6.1%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	4.6%	10.4%	6.1%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	4.6%	10.4%	6.1%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	6.1%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	6.1%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	6.1%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	6.1%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	8.2%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	8.2%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	8.2%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	3.6%	10.4%	8.2%	13.6%	1.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00	4.5%	10.4%	8.2%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	4.5%	10.4%	8.2%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	4.5%	10.4%	8.2%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	4.5%	10.4%	8.2%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00	4.5%	14.1%	6.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	4.5%	14.1%	6.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	4.5%	14.1%	6.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	4.5%	14.1%	6.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	2.9%	14.9%	6.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:05+00:00	2.9%	14.9%	6.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	2.9%	15.5%	6.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	2.9%	15.5%	6.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	2.9%	15.5%	4.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	2.9%	15.5%	4.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	2.9%	15.5%	4.1%	37.6%	1.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	2.4%	15.5%	4.1%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	2.4%	15.5%	4.1%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	2.4%	15.5%	4.1%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	2.4%	15.5%	4.1%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	2.4%	15.5%	4.1%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	2.4%	15.5%	3.5%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	2.4%	15.5%	3.5%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	2.4%	15.5%	3.5%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	2.2%	15.5%	3.5%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	2.2%	15.5%	3.5%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	2.2%	15.5%	3.5%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	2.2%	15.5%	3.5%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00	2.2%	15.5%	3.5%	17.7%	0.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00	2.0%	15.5%	3.5%	15.9%	0.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	2.0%	15.5%	3.5%	15.9%	0.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	2.0%	15.5%	3.5%	15.9%	0.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	2.0%	15.5%	3.5%	15.9%	0.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	2.0%	15.5%	3.5%	15.9%	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	68.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	67.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	65.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗