KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

90%

86%

63%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.8¢Risks 79.80u

ICONNO 20.2¢Risks 20.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.20u · ICON −20.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	12.6%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	25.7%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	48.0%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	77.6%	50.0%	4.0%	—	74.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	70.9%	92.4%	93.1%	—	92.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	40.2%	99.0%	44.7%	—	87.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	95.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	55.6%	94.1%	45.2%	—	91.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	95.7%	87.1%	91.0%	—	89.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	24.6%	92.5%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	98.7%	96.6%	93.0%	—	97.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	98.4%	95.7%	—	—	98.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	92.4%	98.6%	88.1%	—	98.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	96.8%	99.3%	—	—	98.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	96.5%	98.5%	83.5%	—	98.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	95.6%	99.4%	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	95.8%	99.8%	92.2%	—	98.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	96.7%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	97.7%	99.9%	93.0%	—	99.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	98.6%	100.0%	0.3%	—	99.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	99.4%	100.0%	96.2%	0.0%	99.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	99.6%	100.0%	98.5%	—	99.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.4%	100.0%	98.5%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	100.0%	99.1%	—	99.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	100.0%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	65.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	64.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	64.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	65.6°F	8.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	58.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	56.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 57°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗