KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

90%

86%

63%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.8¢Risks 79.80u

ICONNO 20.2¢Risks 20.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.20u · ICON −20.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:35+00:00	16.4%	70.7%	42.6%	62.4%	13.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	92.6%	86.0%	89.7%	90.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	92.6%	86.0%	89.7%	90.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	92.6%	86.0%	92.1%	90.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	92.6%	86.0%	92.1%	90.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	92.6%	86.0%	92.1%	90.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	92.6%	86.0%	92.1%	90.4%	82.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	87.1%	86.0%	92.1%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	87.1%	86.0%	92.1%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	87.1%	86.0%	92.1%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	87.1%	86.0%	92.1%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	87.1%	86.0%	96.9%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	87.1%	86.0%	96.9%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	87.1%	86.0%	96.9%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	93.1%	86.0%	96.9%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	93.1%	86.0%	96.9%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	93.1%	86.0%	96.9%	89.6%	62.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	93.1%	86.0%	96.9%	89.6%	62.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	65.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	64.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	64.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	65.6°F	8.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	58.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	56.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 57°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗