KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

80%

72%

68%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.8¢Risks 38.42u

AIFSNO 23.2¢Risks 11.58u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +11.58u · AIFS −11.58u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.0%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	7.1%	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	18.4%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	45.1%	18.9%	0.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	35.7%	69.6%	71.5%	—	69.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	11.4%	91.3%	13.8%	—	58.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	19.5%	71.2%	13.1%	—	64.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	74.9%	53.3%	61.5%	—	57.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	3.9%	64.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	86.9%	76.6%	64.6%	—	78.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	84.5%	72.1%	—	—	83.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	60.9%	85.1%	50.9%	—	85.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	74.7%	89.6%	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	72.1%	82.9%	40.4%	—	79.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	67.4%	89.0%	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	67.0%	93.9%	55.1%	—	81.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	69.3%	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	73.6%	96.0%	54.4%	—	86.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	78.6%	96.9%	0.0%	—	85.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	85.3%	99.4%	62.6%	0.0%	83.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	86.8%	99.7%	74.7%	—	89.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	83.4%	99.3%	72.4%	92.5%	92.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	99.8%	77.2%	—	93.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	99.9%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	84%	67.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	67.1°F	6.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	64.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	63.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	60.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗