KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

77%

46%

26%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

ICONNO 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.50u · ICON −39.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	97.4%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	97.6%	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	3.2%	86.5%	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	82.0%	94.2%	9.9%	—	92.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	99.9%	99.5%	90.4%	—	96.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	94.8%	67.7%	94.6%	—	97.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	98.9%	100.0%	98.5%	—	99.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	100.0%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	99.9%	100.0%	99.6%	—	99.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	74.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	99.5%	100.0%	99.3%	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	99.2%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	99.7%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	100.0%	0.5%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	67.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	68.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	62.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	59.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	57.1°F	14.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	52.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗