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KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
95%
HRES
94%
WN2
77%
EPS
46%
ICON
26%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 60.5¢Risks 60.50u
VS
ICONNO 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +39.50u · ICON −39.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 94.7% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00AIFS Single: 94.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00AIFS Single: 94.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00AIFS Single: 94.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS HRES: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:0010-15 07:5010-15 09:2110-15 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:0094.7%46.1%77.1%93.7%26.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:0094.7%46.1%77.1%93.7%26.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:0094.7%46.1%77.1%93.7%26.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:0094.7%46.1%77.1%93.7%26.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single95%67.6°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES94%68.2°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 277%62.5°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend52%59.0°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%57.1°F14.2°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON26%52.2°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗