KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

95%

81%

63%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

EPSNO 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +19.45u · EPS −19.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	96.2%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	96.5%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.7%	2.2%	82.4%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	77.0%	91.8%	7.2%	—	89.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	99.8%	99.2%	86.9%	—	94.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	92.4%	60.6%	92.2%	—	96.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	98.1%	100.0%	97.5%	—	99.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	99.9%	100.0%	99.2%	—	99.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	66.6%	100.0%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	90.6%	99.0%	100.0%	98.7%	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	98.5%	100.0%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	99.4%	100.0%	99.7%	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	99.8%	100.0%	99.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	99.7%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	100.0%	0.2%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	99.9%	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	100.0%	—	100.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	72.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	69.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	67.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	81%	68.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	63.0°F	10.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 60°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗