KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

95%

81%

63%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

EPSNO 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +19.45u · EPS −19.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	92.5%	43.3%	83.6%	91.5%	23.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	92.5%	43.3%	83.6%	91.5%	23.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	92.5%	61.9%	83.6%	91.5%	23.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	92.5%	61.9%	83.6%	91.5%	23.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	96.2%	61.9%	83.3%	91.3%	23.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	96.2%	61.9%	83.3%	91.3%	23.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	96.2%	62.9%	83.3%	91.3%	23.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	96.2%	62.9%	83.3%	91.3%	23.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	96.2%	62.9%	91.6%	91.3%	23.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	96.2%	62.9%	91.6%	91.3%	23.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	96.2%	62.9%	91.6%	91.3%	23.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	96.2%	62.9%	91.6%	91.3%	23.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	93.2%	62.9%	91.6%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	93.2%	62.9%	91.6%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	93.2%	62.9%	91.6%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	93.2%	62.9%	91.6%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	93.2%	62.9%	94.9%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	93.2%	62.9%	94.9%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	93.2%	62.9%	94.9%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	96.0%	62.9%	94.9%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	96.0%	62.9%	94.9%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	96.0%	62.9%	94.9%	98.2%	81.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	96.0%	62.9%	94.9%	98.2%	81.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	72.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	69.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	67.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	81%	68.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	63.0°F	10.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 60°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗