KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

84%

82%

45%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.5¢Risks 69.55u

EPSNO 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.45u · EPS −30.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	87.5%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	87.7%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	0.4%	60.0%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	51.4%	75.4%	1.5%	—	71.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	98.1%	95.4%	65.0%	—	81.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	74.9%	30.9%	74.2%	—	84.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	90.0%	99.4%	87.7%	—	95.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	99.9%	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	98.6%	99.9%	94.2%	—	96.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	33.4%	99.5%	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	92.7%	99.2%	91.0%	—	96.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	89.6%	99.5%	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	94.5%	99.6%	97.0%	—	97.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	100.0%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	96.8%	99.6%	95.6%	—	99.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	99.9%	99.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	95.6%	99.6%	98.7%	—	98.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	96.5%	100.0%	97.9%	99.6%	99.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	100.0%	0.0%	—	99.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	94%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	69.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	84%	70.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	68.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	63.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	62.3°F	9.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗