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KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
94%
WN2
91%
ICON
84%
AIFS
82%
EPS
45%
Consensus
81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 69.5¢Risks 69.55u
VS
EPSNO 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.45u · EPS −30.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00AIFS Single: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00AIFS Single: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00AIFS Single: 81.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.8% · 2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.8% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.8% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.8% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 84.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS HRES: 94.4% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00ICON: 84.4% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:0010-16 15:0510-16 21:5210-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T15:05:47+00:0083.2%44.7%71.1%84.9%98.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:0083.2%44.7%71.1%84.9%98.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:0083.2%44.7%71.1%84.9%98.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:0083.2%44.7%90.8%84.9%98.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:0083.2%44.7%90.8%84.9%98.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:0083.2%44.7%90.8%84.9%98.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:0080.8%44.7%90.8%84.9%84.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:0080.8%44.7%90.8%84.9%84.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:0080.8%44.7%90.8%84.9%84.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:0080.8%44.7%90.8%84.9%84.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:0080.8%44.7%90.8%94.4%84.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:0080.8%44.7%91.1%94.4%84.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:0080.8%44.7%91.1%94.4%84.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:0080.8%44.7%91.1%94.4%84.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:0081.7%44.7%91.1%94.4%84.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:0081.7%44.7%91.1%94.4%84.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:0081.7%44.7%91.1%94.4%84.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:0081.7%44.7%91.1%94.4%84.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES94%74.0°F6.6°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 291%69.8°F4.7°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
ICON84%70.7°F7.1°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single82%68.4°F5.4°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
NWS forecast53%64.0°F5.9°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
National Blend47%63.0°F7.8°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%62.3°F9.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗