KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

88%

75%

74%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.9¢Risks 84.90u

EPSNO 15.1¢Risks 15.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.10u · EPS −15.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	79.8%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	79.8%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.1%	46.6%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	37.6%	63.1%	0.6%	—	58.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	95.6%	90.7%	50.7%	—	69.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	61.3%	18.9%	60.6%	—	73.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	81.1%	98.2%	77.6%	—	90.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	99.6%	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	96.2%	99.5%	87.5%	—	92.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	19.6%	98.4%	—	—	90.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	84.4%	97.5%	81.6%	—	91.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	79.1%	98.3%	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	87.1%	98.5%	92.1%	—	92.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	99.8%	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	91.4%	98.5%	88.9%	—	96.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	99.6%	96.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	88.2%	98.4%	95.6%	—	95.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	99.9%	99.3%	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	89.6%	99.7%	93.0%	98.4%	98.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	99.9%	0.0%	—	98.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	72.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	72.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	69.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	68.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗