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KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
96%
HRES
88%
ICON
88%
AIFS
75%
EPS
74%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 84.9¢Risks 84.90u
VS
EPSNO 15.1¢Risks 15.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.10u · EPS −15.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 81.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00AIFS Single: 74.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS HRES: 90.1% · 2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:00IFS HRES: 90.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 90.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 90.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00IFS HRES: 88.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00IFS HRES: 88.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00ICON: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:0010-17 04:4210-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:42:29+00:0070.4%36.1%82.1%90.1%76.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:0070.4%36.1%91.1%90.1%76.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:0070.4%36.1%91.1%90.1%76.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:0070.4%36.1%91.1%90.1%76.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:0081.2%36.1%91.1%88.4%88.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:0081.2%36.1%91.1%88.4%88.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:0081.2%36.1%91.1%88.4%88.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0081.2%36.1%91.1%88.4%88.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0081.2%36.1%91.1%88.4%88.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:0081.2%74.2%95.6%88.4%88.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:0081.2%74.2%95.6%88.4%88.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:0081.2%74.2%95.6%88.4%88.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:0074.7%74.2%95.6%88.4%88.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:0074.8%74.2%95.6%88.3%87.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 296%72.5°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES88%72.4°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON88%72.6°F6.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single75%68.8°F5.0°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%69.4°F6.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend67%68.0°F5.5°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗