KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

80%

57%

54%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 72.5¢Risks 72.50u

AIFSNO 27.5¢Risks 27.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +27.50u · AIFS −27.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	64.1%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	69.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	63.4%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	0.0%	27.7%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	19.9%	42.3%	0.1%	—	37.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	87.6%	78.0%	29.7%	—	48.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	38.7%	7.3%	38.0%	—	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	61.0%	93.3%	56.4%	—	76.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	97.8%	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	87.5%	97.4%	70.0%	—	78.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	6.7%	93.3%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	63.7%	90.3%	59.6%	—	75.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	55.4%	92.5%	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	67.0%	93.0%	76.3%	—	77.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	98.6%	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	73.7%	92.5%	68.7%	—	86.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	97.3%	86.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	66.0%	91.4%	82.4%	—	81.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	98.5%	95.0%	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	66.9%	97.4%	74.5%	90.6%	89.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	99.1%	0.0%	—	91.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	76.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	73.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	68.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗