KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

80%

57%

54%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 72.5¢Risks 72.50u

AIFSNO 27.5¢Risks 27.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +27.50u · AIFS −27.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	52.4%	56.7%	83.5%	75.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	52.4%	56.7%	83.5%	75.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	52.4%	56.7%	82.2%	75.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	52.4%	56.7%	82.2%	75.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	52.4%	56.7%	82.2%	75.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	52.4%	56.7%	82.2%	75.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	55.6%	56.7%	82.2%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	55.6%	56.7%	82.2%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	55.6%	56.7%	82.2%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	55.6%	56.7%	82.2%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	55.6%	56.7%	82.9%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	55.6%	56.7%	82.9%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	55.6%	56.7%	82.9%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	55.6%	56.7%	82.9%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	54.0%	56.7%	82.9%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	54.0%	56.7%	82.9%	80.1%	91.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	54.0%	56.7%	82.9%	80.1%	91.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	76.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	73.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	69.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	68.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗