KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

88%

78%

68%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.2¢Risks 80.25u

ICONNO 19.8¢Risks 19.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +19.75u · ICON −19.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	88.3%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	46.1%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	58.7%	85.7%	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	50.7%	53.5%	65.1%	—	84.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	97.8%	58.0%	86.9%	89.4%	—	99.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	99.6%	95.4%	94.4%	—	97.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	89.8%	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	57.9%	85.5%	94.3%	—	92.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	89.8%	—	—	95.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	90.6%	99.9%	85.7%	—	88.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	81.6%	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.4%	88.7%	96.9%	—	98.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.6%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	99.9%	100.0%	97.7%	—	95.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	98.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	100.0%	—	—	97.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	62.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	66.2°F	9.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	59.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	57.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	68%	58.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	54.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 54°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE54
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 54°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗