KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

88%

78%

68%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.2¢Risks 80.25u

ICONNO 19.8¢Risks 19.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +19.75u · ICON −19.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	87.6%	90.8%	76.7%	62.2%	72.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	87.4%	90.7%	76.6%	62.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	87.4%	90.7%	76.6%	62.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	87.4%	90.9%	76.6%	62.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	87.4%	90.9%	76.6%	62.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	87.4%	90.9%	89.9%	62.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	87.4%	90.9%	89.9%	62.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	87.4%	90.9%	89.9%	62.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	79.8%	90.9%	89.9%	62.2%	68.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	79.8%	90.9%	89.9%	62.2%	68.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	79.8%	90.9%	89.9%	62.2%	68.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	79.8%	90.9%	89.9%	62.2%	68.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	79.8%	90.9%	89.9%	92.3%	68.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	79.8%	90.9%	87.6%	92.3%	68.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	79.8%	90.9%	87.6%	92.3%	68.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	79.8%	90.9%	87.6%	92.3%	68.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	77.8%	90.9%	87.6%	92.3%	68.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	77.8%	90.9%	87.6%	92.3%	68.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	77.8%	90.9%	87.6%	92.3%	68.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	77.8%	90.9%	87.6%	92.3%	68.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	62.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	66.2°F	9.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	59.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	57.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	68%	58.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	54.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 54°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE54
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 54°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗