KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

97%

97%

93%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 96.4¢Risks 24.09u

ICONNO 3.6¢Risks 0.91u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +0.91u · ICON −0.91u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	62.1%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	14.1%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	21.3%	52.0%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	14.9%	16.6%	25.2%	—	48.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	18.4%	50.7%	55.8%	—	90.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	93.5%	70.4%	67.0%	—	77.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	53.9%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	15.9%	44.4%	64.8%	—	59.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	51.6%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	52.5%	96.9%	42.5%	—	47.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	35.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	88.2%	45.6%	70.9%	—	77.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	90.4%	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	95.0%	98.6%	72.6%	—	60.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	97.0%	99.1%	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	95.1%	97.5%	96.8%	88.9%	78.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	99.2%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	99.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	99%	70.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	68.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	66.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	58.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗