KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

30%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.0¢Risks 19.00u

AIFSNO 81.0¢Risks 81.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.00u · AIFS −81.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	5.5%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.6%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	0.9%	1.3%	—	14.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	16.4%	2.5%	2.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.0%	0.3%	1.3%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.4%	19.5%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.7%	0.1%	1.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	5.2%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.6%	20.9%	0.8%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.3%	23.8%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.5%	11.1%	9.4%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	20.4%	—	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	35%	70.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	70.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	67.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	67.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	64.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	61.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗