KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

30%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 18.4¢Risks 18.40u

AIFSNO 81.6¢Risks 81.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.60u · AIFS −81.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	23.5%	25.4%	0.6%	17.8%	2.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	23.5%	25.4%	0.6%	17.8%	2.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	23.5%	25.4%	0.6%	17.8%	2.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	23.5%	25.4%	0.6%	17.8%	2.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	23.5%	25.4%	0.6%	17.8%	2.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	23.5%	31.9%	16.8%	17.8%	2.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	23.5%	31.9%	16.8%	17.8%	2.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	23.5%	31.9%	16.8%	17.8%	2.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	16.4%	31.9%	16.8%	18.1%	2.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	16.4%	32.0%	16.8%	17.8%	2.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00	16.4%	32.5%	16.8%	17.8%	2.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	16.4%	32.5%	16.8%	17.8%	2.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	16.4%	32.5%	3.0%	17.8%	2.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	16.4%	32.5%	3.0%	17.8%	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	16.4%	32.5%	3.0%	17.8%	2.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	16.4%	32.5%	3.0%	17.8%	2.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	14.6%	32.5%	3.0%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	14.6%	32.5%	3.0%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	14.6%	32.5%	3.0%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	14.6%	32.5%	3.0%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	14.6%	32.5%	7.9%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	14.6%	32.5%	7.9%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	14.6%	32.5%	7.9%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	14.6%	32.5%	7.9%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	7.9%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	7.9%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	7.9%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	7.9%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	21.5%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	21.5%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	21.5%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	21.5%	11.3%	42.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	21.5%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	21.5%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	21.5%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	18.7%	32.5%	21.5%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00	18.7%	28.8%	13.7%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	18.7%	28.8%	13.7%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	18.7%	28.8%	13.7%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	18.7%	28.8%	13.7%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	12.5%	29.2%	13.7%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:08+00:00	12.5%	29.2%	13.7%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	12.5%	30.2%	13.7%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	12.5%	30.2%	13.7%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	12.5%	30.2%	23.3%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	12.5%	30.2%	23.3%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	12.5%	30.2%	23.3%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	16.1%	30.2%	23.3%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	16.1%	30.2%	23.3%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	16.1%	30.2%	23.3%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	16.1%	30.2%	23.3%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	16.1%	30.2%	23.3%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	16.1%	30.2%	14.8%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	16.1%	30.2%	14.8%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	16.1%	30.2%	14.8%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	17.6%	30.2%	14.8%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	17.6%	30.2%	14.8%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	17.6%	30.2%	14.8%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	17.6%	30.2%	14.8%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	17.6%	30.2%	14.8%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	17.6%	30.2%	19.7%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	17.6%	30.2%	19.7%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	17.6%	30.2%	19.7%	0.1%	5.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00	22.3%	30.2%	19.7%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	22.3%	30.2%	19.7%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	22.3%	30.2%	19.7%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	22.3%	30.2%	19.7%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	22.3%	30.2%	19.7%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	22.3%	36.8%	31.5%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	22.3%	36.8%	31.5%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	22.3%	36.8%	31.5%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	17.4%	36.8%	31.5%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	17.4%	36.8%	31.4%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	17.4%	35.6%	31.4%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	17.4%	35.6%	31.4%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	17.4%	35.6%	31.4%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	17.4%	35.6%	15.4%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	17.4%	35.6%	15.4%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	17.4%	35.6%	15.4%	23.0%	11.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	3.3%	35.6%	15.4%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	3.3%	35.6%	15.4%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	3.3%	35.6%	15.4%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	3.3%	35.6%	15.4%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	3.3%	35.6%	15.4%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	3.3%	35.6%	4.0%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	3.3%	35.6%	4.0%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	3.3%	35.6%	4.0%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	9.9%	35.6%	4.0%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	9.9%	35.6%	4.0%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	9.9%	35.6%	4.0%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00	9.9%	35.6%	4.0%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	9.9%	35.6%	4.0%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	9.9%	35.6%	19.5%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	9.9%	35.6%	19.5%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	9.9%	35.6%	19.5%	7.8%	19.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	3.2%	35.6%	19.5%	7.8%	8.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	3.2%	35.6%	19.5%	7.8%	8.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	3.2%	35.6%	19.5%	7.8%	8.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	3.2%	35.6%	19.5%	7.8%	8.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00	3.2%	35.1%	6.5%	29.5%	8.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	3.2%	35.1%	6.5%	29.5%	8.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	3.2%	35.1%	6.5%	29.5%	8.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	3.2%	35.1%	6.5%	29.5%	8.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	3.2%	35.1%	6.5%	29.5%	8.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	3.2%	35.1%	6.5%	29.5%	8.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:00	3.2%	34.8%	6.5%	29.5%	8.3%
2026-10-20T16:18:01+00:00	3.2%	34.8%	6.5%	29.5%	8.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:30+00:00	2.0%	34.8%	3.3%	29.5%	8.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	2.0%	34.8%	3.3%	29.5%	8.3%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00	2.0%	34.8%	3.3%	29.5%	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	35%	70.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	70.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	67.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	63.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	61.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗