KBIL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

76%

73%

70%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 80.2¢Risks 80.20u

WN2NO 19.8¢Risks 19.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +19.80u · WN2 −19.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	20.7%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	25.4%	21.8%	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	66.4%	78.1%	41.6%	—	75.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	32.3%	36.4%	60.8%	—	82.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	69.7%	73.6%	89.0%	—	79.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	31.6%	61.8%	85.5%	—	78.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	96.4%	50.0%	89.9%	—	78.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	29.6%	93.0%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	90.6%	65.4%	84.4%	97.5%	61.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	78.5%	—	—	59.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	64.7°F	11.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	54.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	56.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	53.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	52.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	50.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261024-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 50°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗