KBIL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

76%

73%

70%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 80.2¢Risks 80.20u

WN2NO 19.8¢Risks 19.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +19.80u · WN2 −19.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	72.9%	76.8%	61.5%	67.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	72.9%	76.8%	61.5%	67.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	72.9%	76.8%	61.5%	67.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	72.9%	76.8%	61.5%	67.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	72.9%	76.8%	61.5%	67.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	72.9%	89.9%	65.3%	67.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	72.9%	89.9%	65.3%	67.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	72.9%	89.9%	65.3%	67.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	80.8%	89.9%	65.3%	67.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	80.8%	89.8%	65.2%	67.4%	53.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00	80.8%	90.3%	65.2%	67.4%	53.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	80.8%	90.3%	65.2%	67.4%	53.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	80.8%	90.3%	68.1%	67.4%	53.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	80.8%	90.3%	68.1%	67.4%	53.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	80.8%	90.3%	68.1%	67.4%	53.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	80.8%	90.3%	68.1%	67.4%	53.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	72.3%	90.3%	68.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	72.3%	90.3%	68.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	72.3%	90.3%	68.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	72.3%	90.3%	68.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	72.3%	90.3%	70.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	72.3%	90.3%	70.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	72.3%	90.3%	70.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	72.3%	90.3%	70.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	73.4%	90.3%	70.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	73.4%	90.3%	70.1%	78.5%	76.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	73.4%	90.3%	70.1%	78.5%	76.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	64.7°F	11.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	54.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	56.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	53.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	52.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	50.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261024-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 50°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗