KBIL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

62%

32%

26%

26%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

WN2NO 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.40u · WN2 −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	9.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	12.1%	9.9%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	45.8%	59.7%	23.0%	—	56.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	15.6%	18.4%	39.2%	—	64.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	47.7%	52.3%	74.2%	—	59.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	14.0%	38.2%	67.7%	—	57.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	88.0%	26.5%	74.2%	—	56.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	11.9%	79.9%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	74.5%	39.6%	63.7%	90.3%	35.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	54.5%	—	—	33.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	57.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	57.2°F	15.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	53.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	53.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	50.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	49.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	50.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261024-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗