KBIL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

62%

32%

26%

26%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

WN2NO 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.40u · WN2 −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:08+00:00	29.0%	65.5%	45.7%	56.0%	40.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	29.0%	66.6%	45.7%	56.0%	40.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	29.0%	66.6%	45.7%	56.0%	40.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	29.0%	66.6%	35.0%	56.0%	40.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	29.0%	66.6%	35.0%	56.0%	40.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	29.0%	66.6%	35.0%	56.0%	40.1%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	35.0%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	35.0%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	35.0%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	35.0%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	35.0%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	39.9%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	39.9%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	55.9%	66.6%	39.9%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	58.1%	66.6%	39.9%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	58.1%	66.6%	39.9%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	58.1%	66.6%	39.9%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	58.1%	66.6%	39.9%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	58.1%	66.6%	39.9%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	58.1%	66.6%	43.2%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	58.1%	66.6%	43.2%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	58.1%	66.6%	43.2%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00	57.2%	66.6%	43.2%	68.0%	33.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	57.2%	66.6%	43.2%	68.0%	33.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	57.2%	66.6%	43.2%	68.0%	33.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	57.2%	66.6%	43.2%	68.0%	33.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	57.2%	66.6%	43.2%	68.0%	33.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	57.2%	71.5%	26.3%	68.0%	33.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	57.2%	71.5%	26.3%	68.0%	33.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	57.2%	71.5%	26.3%	68.0%	33.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	65.7%	71.5%	26.3%	68.0%	33.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	65.7%	71.5%	26.3%	68.0%	32.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	65.7%	70.3%	26.3%	68.0%	32.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	65.7%	70.3%	26.3%	68.0%	32.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	65.7%	70.3%	26.3%	68.0%	32.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	65.7%	70.3%	31.3%	68.0%	32.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	65.7%	70.3%	31.3%	68.0%	32.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	65.7%	70.3%	31.3%	68.0%	32.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	69.4%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	69.4%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	69.4%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	69.4%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	69.4%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	69.4%	70.3%	35.8%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	69.4%	70.3%	35.8%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	69.4%	70.3%	35.8%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	48.4%	70.3%	35.8%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	48.4%	70.3%	35.8%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	48.4%	70.3%	35.8%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00	48.4%	70.3%	35.8%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	48.4%	70.3%	35.8%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	48.4%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	48.4%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	48.4%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	91.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	32.3%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	83.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	32.3%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	83.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	32.3%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	83.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	32.3%	70.3%	31.3%	78.7%	83.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00	32.3%	61.9%	25.9%	26.1%	83.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	32.3%	61.9%	25.9%	26.1%	83.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	32.3%	61.9%	25.9%	26.1%	83.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	32.3%	61.9%	25.9%	26.1%	83.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	32.3%	61.9%	25.9%	26.1%	83.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	32.3%	61.9%	25.9%	26.1%	83.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	57.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	57.2°F	15.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	53.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	53.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	50.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	49.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	50.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261024-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 53°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗