KBIL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

73%

71%

53%

42%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 70.8¢Risks 70.80u

ICONNO 29.2¢Risks 29.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.20u · ICON −29.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	8.1%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	94.7%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	4.7%	98.1%	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	89.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	11.9%	87.0%	9.6%	—	85.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	55.8%	98.9%	85.6%	—	81.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	97.3%	29.6%	50.0%	—	84.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	82.1%	6.9%	56.4%	98.8%	47.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	3.9%	—	—	68.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	70.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	54.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	54.6°F	7.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	50.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	51.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	48.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 51°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗