KBIL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

73%

71%

53%

42%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 70.8¢Risks 70.80u

ICONNO 29.2¢Risks 29.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.20u · ICON −29.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00	61.0%	69.5%	47.7%	74.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	61.0%	69.5%	47.7%	74.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	61.0%	69.5%	47.7%	74.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	61.0%	69.5%	47.7%	74.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	88.2%	69.4%	47.7%	74.3%	29.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	88.2%	69.4%	47.7%	74.3%	29.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	88.2%	71.3%	47.7%	74.3%	29.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	88.2%	71.3%	47.7%	74.3%	29.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	88.2%	71.3%	43.0%	74.3%	29.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	88.2%	71.3%	43.0%	74.3%	29.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	88.2%	71.3%	43.0%	74.3%	29.8%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	77.3%	71.3%	43.0%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	77.3%	71.3%	43.0%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	77.3%	71.3%	43.0%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	77.3%	71.3%	43.0%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	77.3%	71.3%	43.0%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	77.3%	71.3%	53.1%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	77.3%	71.3%	53.1%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	77.3%	71.3%	53.1%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	53.1%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	53.1%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	53.1%	99.9%	41.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	73.4%	71.3%	53.1%	99.9%	41.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	70.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	54.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	54.6°F	7.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	50.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	51.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	48.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 51°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗