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KBIL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
95%
EPS
52%
HRES
49%
AIFS
37%
WN2
21%
Consensus
50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u
VS
WN2NO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.10u · WN2 −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:0030.2%52.0%26.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:0030.2%52.0%26.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:0030.2%52.0%26.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:0030.2%52.0%24.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:0030.2%52.0%24.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:0030.2%52.0%24.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:0026.4%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:0026.4%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:0026.4%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:0036.9%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:0036.9%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:0036.9%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON95%64.2°F7.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast53%53.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble52%52.9°F8.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES49%52.4°F6.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend48%52.0°F8.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single37%50.7°F5.4°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 221%48.7°F4.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 53°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗