KBIL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

64%

49%

47%

23%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

WN2NO 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.00u · WN2 −48.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	4.4%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	90.1%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	2.2%	95.8%	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	6.3%	78.1%	4.9%	—	76.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	41.3%	97.3%	75.7%	—	69.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	94.0%	17.9%	35.1%	—	74.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	69.8%	3.0%	40.5%	96.9%	32.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	81%	57.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	54.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	53.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	52.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	52.0°F	8.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	51.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	49.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 53°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗