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KBIL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
81%
HRES
64%
AIFS
49%
EPS
47%
WN2
23%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 52.0¢Risks 52.00u
VS
WN2NO 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +48.00u · WN2 −48.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 30.2% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00AIFS Single: 49.2% · 2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.7% · 2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS HRES: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00ICON: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00ICON: 95.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00ICON: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 22:0110-20 15:32
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:0030.2%52.0%26.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:0030.2%52.0%26.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:0030.2%52.0%26.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:0030.2%52.0%24.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:0030.2%52.0%24.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:0030.2%52.0%24.0%82.3%63.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:0026.4%52.0%24.0%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:0026.4%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:0026.4%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:0026.4%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:0036.9%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:0036.9%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:0036.9%52.0%20.8%49.4%95.0%
2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:0049.2%46.7%23.2%64.2%80.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON81%57.8°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES64%54.6°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%53.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending
AIFS Single49%52.4°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend48%52.0°F8.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble47%51.9°F7.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 223%49.5°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 53°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗