KBIL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

65%

65%

47%

46%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

AIFSNO 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.70u · AIFS −43.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	87.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	97.8%	—	—	83.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	53.1%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	6.5%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	4.8%	26.0%	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	45.1%	73.7%	3.3%	—	64.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	70.3%	10.6%	3.2%	27.9%	58.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	3.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	67%	52.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	65%	53.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	54.2°F	12.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	50.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	49.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	48.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 50°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261026-TMAX-GE50
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 50°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗