KBNA / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

67%

66%

55%

50%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.3¢Risks 64.30u

EPSNO 35.7¢Risks 35.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.70u · EPS −35.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	52.5%	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	79.8%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	82.9%	—	—	65.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	74.8%	41.6%	—	67.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	31.0%	80.6%	33.7%	—	70.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	68.7%	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	17.9%	90.7%	67.0%	—	75.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	85.9%	—	—	62.3%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	75.8%	83.7%	42.9%	—	71.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	17.3%	77.5%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	71.4%	86.7%	45.8%	—	63.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	36.6%	66.6%	—	—	65.8%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	65.4%	70.1%	63.7%	—	64.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	52.7%	77.1%	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	54.6%	74.9%	23.7%	—	60.0%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	56.6%	67.4%	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	66.1%	75.3%	17.1%	—	65.2%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	54.0%	56.0%	—	—	59.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	34.0%	61.2%	10.8%	—	56.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	30.7%	58.4%	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	65.9%	52.2%	9.4%	—	52.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	60.0%	44.4%	0.0%	—	59.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	71.0%	28.9%	33.1%	46.5%	51.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	67.5%	67.5%	25.3%	—	48.8%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	73.4%	48.8%	29.8%	24.6%	50.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	73.1%	66.3%	31.4%	—	47.4%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	73.9%	71.6%	40.7%	24.0%	48.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	77.9%	70.0%	30.0%	—	43.1%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	78.8%	61.4%	29.3%	24.5%	58.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	76.4%	86.4%	23.6%	—	24.8%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	65.4%	65.4%	23.8%	50.0%	26.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	75.9%	67.6%	35.5%	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	81%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	95.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	94.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	94.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	93.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	92.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	92.5°F	2.7°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260909-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗