KBNA / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

48%

43%

33%

23%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 41.6¢Risks 41.65u

EPSNO 58.4¢Risks 58.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.35u · EPS −58.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	52.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	40.1%	—	—	51.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	69.4%	—	—	55.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	72.9%	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	62.4%	28.6%	—	53.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	19.4%	69.0%	21.5%	—	57.3%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	54.5%	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	9.7%	82.6%	52.3%	—	62.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	75.3%	—	—	46.9%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	61.8%	71.9%	28.1%	—	57.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	8.8%	63.6%	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	55.8%	75.5%	30.0%	—	46.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	22.0%	50.0%	—	—	49.1%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	48.2%	53.5%	46.5%	—	47.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	35.1%	61.5%	—	—	42.9%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	36.4%	58.2%	11.9%	—	41.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	37.9%	49.0%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	47.1%	57.7%	7.5%	—	46.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	34.4%	36.3%	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	17.6%	40.8%	4.0%	—	35.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	15.0%	37.5%	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	44.5%	31.1%	3.1%	—	31.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	37.8%	24.0%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	48.8%	12.7%	15.3%	25.1%	28.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	44.0%	44.0%	10.2%	—	26.3%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	50.0%	25.6%	12.4%	9.5%	26.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	48.7%	41.0%	12.8%	—	23.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	48.7%	46.0%	18.2%	8.4%	24.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	52.8%	43.1%	11.1%	—	19.1%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	52.9%	33.1%	10.2%	7.8%	30.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	48.5%	63.3%	7.0%	—	7.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	34.6%	34.6%	6.6%	21.4%	7.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	45.1%	35.5%	11.5%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	60%	95.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	94.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	93.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	94.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	92.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	92.5°F	2.7°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260909-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗