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KBNA / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
60%
AIFS
48%
WN2
43%
ICON
33%
EPS
23%
Consensus
40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 41.6¢Risks 41.65u
VS
EPSNO 58.4¢Risks 58.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.35u · EPS −58.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.9% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00AIFS Single: 50.9% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00AIFS Single: 50.9% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00AIFS Single: 50.9% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00AIFS Single: 50.9% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00AIFS Single: 51.0% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00AIFS Single: 48.1% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 48.1% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00AIFS Single: 48.1% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00AIFS Single: 48.1% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00AIFS Single: 48.1% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00AIFS Single: 48.1% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.2% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.2% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.2% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.2% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.2% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.2% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.2% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.2% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.2% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.2% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.2% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.2% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.2% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.2% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.2% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.7% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.7% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.5% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.5% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.5% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.5% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.5% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.5% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.5% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.5% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.7% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.7% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.7% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.7% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.7% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.1% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.1% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.1% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00IFS HRES: 47.9% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00IFS HRES: 60.4% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00ICON: 42.1% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00ICON: 42.1% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00ICON: 42.1% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00ICON: 42.1% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00ICON: 42.1% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:0009-08 03:3809-08 11:0909-09 06:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:0050.9%27.2%23.7%50.0%42.1%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:0050.9%27.2%23.7%50.0%42.1%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:0050.9%27.2%35.5%50.0%42.1%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:0050.9%27.2%35.5%50.0%42.1%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:0050.9%27.2%35.5%50.0%42.1%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:0051.0%27.2%35.5%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:0051.0%27.2%35.5%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:0051.0%27.2%35.5%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:0051.0%27.2%35.5%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:0051.0%23.2%35.5%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:0051.0%23.2%29.7%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:0051.0%23.2%29.7%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:0051.0%23.2%29.7%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:0046.2%23.2%29.7%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:0046.2%23.2%29.7%47.9%33.6%
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:0048.1%22.9%22.1%60.4%32.6%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:0048.1%22.9%22.1%60.4%32.6%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:0048.1%22.9%22.1%60.4%32.6%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:0048.1%22.9%43.0%60.4%32.6%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:0048.1%22.9%43.0%60.4%32.6%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:0048.1%22.9%43.0%60.4%32.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES60%95.5°F3.8°F2026-09-08 12:00Pending
NWS forecast57%95.0°F2.8°F2026-09-09 02:00Pending
AIFS Single48%94.3°F4.2°F2026-09-08 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 243%93.9°F3.4°F2026-09-08 18:00Pending
National Blend41%94.0°F2.2°F2026-09-09 00:00Pending
ICON33%92.9°F3.5°F2026-09-08 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble23%92.5°F2.7°F2026-09-08 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260909-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗